Water FractalTier 2
at PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.7%
avg ELO -6.5 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1368
· median 1368
· range 1304–1433
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1173
Q3 1328
1433
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 13.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
